Really enjoyed this. You put into words and maths something I realized right when God revealed himself to me only a couple of years ago. I remember looking out of my window and suddenly a rush of understanding came over me and I thought "there is simply no way this all just happened randomly". The more I considered it, the more I felt like it was actually insane to believe that it had just happened for no reason. Great read, I laughed out loud several times as well.
I recommend Richard Elwes' recent book "Huge Numbers". It starts with how (and how far) animals count, looks at "primitive" and "advanced" cultures, the numbers of our natural world, and finally passes by Graham's Number on its way to even bigger numbers.
Saying "Billions/Millions of years" is just a magic spell. Anything can happen in enough time it seems, never mind where energy or matter enters into the equation. I always come back to science is observation. If it cannot be observed than it cannot be verified. No person has lived long enough or maintained a long enough record for us to know what happened for sure millions or billions of years ago, so its all just conjecture in the end.
Great article. I forget who said it, but this reminds me of a quote I came across, "the greatest failure of humanity is our in-ability to understand the exponential."
Oh how true that is. I am honestly astounded by how much mental infrastructure is required to even make calculus possible, because the concepts themselves are easy to grasp, but harder to understand.
Interesting post. I’ll admit to have long forgotten my mathematical education. However it seems to me like there’s a fallacy underlying this entire article. Namely: that evolution is the consequence of random chance. I don’t believe any biologist worth his salt would concede this point.
Two points: 1) we don’t know to what degree the selection mechanism constrains possibility
2) the speed of reproduction and iteration of the simplest organism is also inconceivable to the human intellect. What do you mean I’ve got to commit oral genocide twice a day to keep bacteria from destroying my teeth?!
When people say millions and billions of years, they are comparing things separated by three orders of magnitude, proving their ignorance. It is like saying “I have a huge stack of money, you dont understand! It has hundred dollar bills and nickels and dimes. Huge numbers here!” They are just shouting approximations for “big” and “stop paying attention. I said big word, me smart now and you dumb”
This is completely beside the point. Except Im just saying it’s possible to think of a million. Also a billion / trillion - the number of cells in your body - I haven’t counted but it’s of that order.
But Im not sure we need a “Creator” so much as a sense of direction cf eg Teilhard de Chardin
As in, I don’t think god has any idea how god’s going to get where god wants to go, but god is definitely going somewhere
Yes but that’s just dividing things up in the abstract. 1 million ounces isn’t 1 million physical objects. If that gold were each in a separate ounce coin, you’d have a lot of trouble with it, and, as mentioned, would break through the floor.
Idk man you start off by making it clear how big you think a million is and then quickly switch to arguing 14,600 times that ain’t enough for self-replicating molecules to form anywhere in the universe so you’ll have to forgive me if I don’t immediately take it at face value
>you understand that even the most generous cosmology gives you nowhere near the amount of time or space necessary to make the formation of even one cell by random chance remotely plausible
Abiogenesis != evolution.
But to get to the underlying point, you can simulate evolution for yourself with a genetic ML algorithm, which uses a random process with a purposeful selection mechanism to get pretty good results remarkably quickly.
It is easy to notice that so many of our mental processes are just a more articulate version of the primitive's "One, Two, Many."
U hrair
I'm here for the biologist intelligence denigration
They are *literally* the people who The Mitochondrion Is The Powerhouse Of The Cell
Really enjoyed this. You put into words and maths something I realized right when God revealed himself to me only a couple of years ago. I remember looking out of my window and suddenly a rush of understanding came over me and I thought "there is simply no way this all just happened randomly". The more I considered it, the more I felt like it was actually insane to believe that it had just happened for no reason. Great read, I laughed out loud several times as well.
Thank you.
My 6 yr old knows that million is ginormous
Based
I recommend Richard Elwes' recent book "Huge Numbers". It starts with how (and how far) animals count, looks at "primitive" and "advanced" cultures, the numbers of our natural world, and finally passes by Graham's Number on its way to even bigger numbers.
Saying "Billions/Millions of years" is just a magic spell. Anything can happen in enough time it seems, never mind where energy or matter enters into the equation. I always come back to science is observation. If it cannot be observed than it cannot be verified. No person has lived long enough or maintained a long enough record for us to know what happened for sure millions or billions of years ago, so its all just conjecture in the end.
That was perfect!
Great article. I forget who said it, but this reminds me of a quote I came across, "the greatest failure of humanity is our in-ability to understand the exponential."
Oh how true that is. I am honestly astounded by how much mental infrastructure is required to even make calculus possible, because the concepts themselves are easy to grasp, but harder to understand.
Real analysis breaks many a naïve undergrad.
Interesting post. I’ll admit to have long forgotten my mathematical education. However it seems to me like there’s a fallacy underlying this entire article. Namely: that evolution is the consequence of random chance. I don’t believe any biologist worth his salt would concede this point.
Every DNA mutation is a random event, and that’s what evolution selects for. There’s a selection mechanism, yes, but it’s on top of a random mechanism
Two points: 1) we don’t know to what degree the selection mechanism constrains possibility
2) the speed of reproduction and iteration of the simplest organism is also inconceivable to the human intellect. What do you mean I’ve got to commit oral genocide twice a day to keep bacteria from destroying my teeth?!
Neither really matter. Again, you’re doing the big numbers are big thing. What you’re suggesting gets us nowhere close to the necessary timeframes
Perhaps you’re underestimating the extent to which reality constrains possibility.
When people say millions and billions of years, they are comparing things separated by three orders of magnitude, proving their ignorance. It is like saying “I have a huge stack of money, you dont understand! It has hundred dollar bills and nickels and dimes. Huge numbers here!” They are just shouting approximations for “big” and “stop paying attention. I said big word, me smart now and you dumb”
I million ounces of gold = 28 suitcases. I can get my head around 28 suitcases. Not sure my Citroen C3 can. It’s 28 tonnes.
This is completely beside the point. Except Im just saying it’s possible to think of a million. Also a billion / trillion - the number of cells in your body - I haven’t counted but it’s of that order.
But Im not sure we need a “Creator” so much as a sense of direction cf eg Teilhard de Chardin
As in, I don’t think god has any idea how god’s going to get where god wants to go, but god is definitely going somewhere
Yes but that’s just dividing things up in the abstract. 1 million ounces isn’t 1 million physical objects. If that gold were each in a separate ounce coin, you’d have a lot of trouble with it, and, as mentioned, would break through the floor.
This is either entirely disingenuous or genuinely hilarious
y so?
Idk man you start off by making it clear how big you think a million is and then quickly switch to arguing 14,600 times that ain’t enough for self-replicating molecules to form anywhere in the universe so you’ll have to forgive me if I don’t immediately take it at face value
Right so, A) it isn’t, and B) self replicating molecules are several light years in complexity away from life.
You’re mistaken but don’t want to hear it from me. Wish you well
>you understand that even the most generous cosmology gives you nowhere near the amount of time or space necessary to make the formation of even one cell by random chance remotely plausible
Abiogenesis != evolution.
But to get to the underlying point, you can simulate evolution for yourself with a genetic ML algorithm, which uses a random process with a purposeful selection mechanism to get pretty good results remarkably quickly.
https://github.com/JohnDavidAnthony/Self_Driving_Car
Right. Abiogenesis is absurdly improbable and then evolution more improbable on top of